The timeline has finally been set for Carlos Alcaraz to topple Jannik Sinner at the top of the ATP Tour rankings.
Sinner has been top of the ATP Tour rankings for over a year thanks to his Grand Slam wins at the US Open, Australian Open, and Wimbledon.
Sinner’s Wimbledon win only furthered his lead over World No. 2 Alcaraz, but the Spaniard finally has the chance to overtake the Italian.
The winner of the Cincinnati Open does not matter to Alcaraz’s quest for Sinner’s World No. 1 spot, but another upcoming tournament does.
Carlos Alcaraz could become World No. 1 at the US Open
Alcaraz and Sinner will collide in the Cincinnati Final on August 18, but no matter the winner of that match the World No. 1 will be on the line at the US Open.
Alcaraz will be 1890 points away from Sinner if he defeats the Italian in Cincinnati, or 2590 points away if he loses.
However, due to Alcaraz’s second-round exit at the US Open in 2024, the star is only defending 50 points at the tournament.
The world #1 will be on the line at the US Open no matter what happens in the final in Cincinnati.
Ranking after Cincy…
If Jannik wins
Sinner 11.830
Alcaraz 9.240If Carlos wins
Sinner 11.430
Alcaraz 9.540Points to defend at the USOpen:
Sinner 2.000
Alcaraz 50— José Morgado (@josemorgado) August 17, 2025
Sinner, meanwhile, won the 2024 tournament so anything less than another win will mean the Italian loses points.
That means an early exit for Sinner could be disastrous for his hopes of holding onto the World No. 1 spot, adding more pressure to the Italian’s title defence.
Carlos Alcaraz is relishing another Jannik Sinner test in Cincinnati
Alcaraz and Sinner set up yet another ATP Tour final by defeating Alexander Zverev and Terence Atmane, respectively.
Alcaraz spoke about facing Sinner after his straight-sets victory over Zverev at the Cincinnati Open. “I just am really looking forward to playing him once again,” revealed Alcaraz on court after dispatching Zverev.
“Thanks to him I just bring my best tennis in the match,” added the World No. 2. “For the people it’s great as well, watching our matches.”
“We raise the level to the top and bring really beautiful tennis to the match. I’m ready to take the challenge.”
Alcaraz and Sinner play each other in the Cincinnati Open final on August 18, with play set to start at 3 pm ET.
